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techcharter

09/20/08 4:15 PM

#35496 RE: SilverSurfer #35495

Hog- Nope, Nothing Wrong With Your Post.
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ZiggyMarley123

09/20/08 10:20 PM

#35497 RE: SilverSurfer #35495

zzzzzzzzzzzzz. Boy that put me to sleep. Thank You!
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trucircle435

09/20/08 10:56 PM

#35498 RE: SilverSurfer #35495

Hogs, I was spelunking in a big library a couple of weeks ago and came across a magazine article published in 1909 titled "The Real Cause of Panics: Sound Evidence That Our Depressions Originate in Real Estate Booms." As the title infers, the author proposes that money which is drained from the economy by overpriced real estate and rent is money not spent on goods and services, leading to an economic downturn. This is a similar concept to what you described, but seems small-time in comparison.

The article has some interesting "text bites":

"Mr. Kohler claims that the coming of the recent panic [1907] was predicted by him long before it arrived and that the wonder of the age is that so few of our financiers display any knowledge as to the real cause of our panics."

He says that panics "come and go" and have a "periodicity that is almost determinable by their regular recurrence." [The length of the stock market's main cycle was very obvious, running 40, 45, and 50 months from 1896 through 1907, as measured using the Dow railroad average.]

"He [Mr. Kohler] claims that every panic we have had in this country was preceded by a real estate boom"

"Another element which has a disastrous effect . . . is the practice of purchasing during real estate booms vacant lots on the instalment plan" by "any man or woman with a regular weekly salary" because "the purchasing power of that person will be reduced by the amount of the instalments. [. . .] The effect of 10,000,000 consumers economizing in order to pay for these lots is directly felt by the store keeper, who complains of poor business and curtails his buying orders. [. . .] Mr. Kohler claims that 90 percent of the people who buy lots in this way lose all the money they have put into them, as well as the lots, through failure to complete the instalments. . ."

The magazine article is a sort of summary/review of a booklet titled "Hard Times: The Cause and the Cure: A Plea for Perpetual Prosperity" by James Pollock Kohler.

It is worth noting that a panic was generally regarded as a good time to buy stocks in that era. The trick, of course, was correctly identifying the panic bottom.
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pegwatcher

09/21/08 12:15 AM

#35499 RE: SilverSurfer #35495

Hogs - your last sentence "The U.S. will lose it's AAA bond rating" got my attention because I have been wondering about just that.

We have no chance of buying back this debt, now or in the future, but we do have assets that dwarf it. We can trade this debt for "pieces of the farm", turning ownership of our country over to foreigners.

I would rather see us lose our AAA rating. Maybe that would shock us into radical reform before we become a second rate power.
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SilverSurfer

09/21/08 7:12 PM

#35502 RE: SilverSurfer #35495

Part 2 - CDS is the derivative that has sunk the financial system. Credit Default Swap. CDS is insurance on mortgage backed securities that will pay some or all of the defaults. A risk hedge like any other insurance but unlike the rest of the finance and insurance world, unregulated and unreported. Virtually anyone can buy coverage on the risk, a bet the mortgages will work out, or you can take the default side and bet the mortgages will fail and this betting can go on and on escalating till the original mortgage backed security has 10, 20, 30 times been factored up. It's like me buying insurance that will pay if your house burns down or if the firemen save it I lose. As realestate became overvalued and subprimers began to default the action in the CDS world heated up and some estimate the leverage out there is around 62 Trillion dollars. That is many times more than the whole American Economy. We are in deep do do people. It all begain inocently enough see> outhttp://banking.senate.gov/conf/ The intent of Sen. Phil Graham's "Financial Modernization Act of 1999" was to reform the financial services sector by lowering barriers among the financial industries and strengthening the overall financial services sector. Sen. McCain was a supporter and co-sponsor of this deregulation and he is going to have a real hard time disavouing his connection to the 1999 deregulation that allowed Investment Banks to "play" the CDS market like a really big poker game with no limits. AIG, BRK and a few others provide the "insurance" for the CDS players and with no one watching the brilliant boys in New York became more and more hooked on multiple leverage bets on the streams of money flowing out of the Mortgage Market. All the noise we hear on CNBC and from politicians means nothing in the face of the monumental greed motivated Grand Canyon of a mess the U.S. is in.