Dear Doof,
I have missed your clever reparte'. Let me see,,your argument is that if GTC raises money by issuing shares (dilution) the concept of "implied odds" is no longer valid.
To begin with, another dilution is highly unlikely because GTC's market cap to yearly burn rate is so low that GTC will not get very far in the credit markets, particularly after Lehman, Leyman, bros went down. The last time GTC tried to destribute shares they managed to raise less than $10 Mil. But lets go ahead and think the unthinkable. Say GTC manages to convince some financial institution (maybe one of Bear-Sterns old friends) to do a 100% dilution and sells a 100 Mil shares of GTC stock for $.20/share (yes I know this is ridiculous). This would net GTC $ 20 Mil which would, combined with Atryn revenues and even minor "milestone" payments carry them through to 2010. Lets say at that time they manage another "financing" of 200 Mil shares at $.10/ share. This would carry them through to 2011. At this point if none of the clinical trials proved worthwhile or they were unable to broker another deal, if they earned none of the more than $250 Mil in milestone payments, they would be trouble. Maybe you see that happening,,I do not. Most likely they be in a self sustaining revenue situation by that time.
Even with with a share dilution to 400 million, a self sustaining GTCB would be worth $ 500 Mil at the very least. If the DIC indication is validated and the pathophysiogy and Kyber-Sept seem very compelling to me, the company will be worth multiples of that figure, never mind the myriad of Mabs and plasma proteins it may eventually produce. This means even with the most serious of dilutions the implied odds in GTC are still very favorable.
Do I see these dilutions occuring,,Of course not. GTC will not have to hit the lottery. I see the "partners" working with GTC advancing money to be covered by future adjustments in earnings distributions. It is in the partners best interest.
":>_ JL
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
