The way I understand it VIP, is that literally everything now hinges on the housing market. And from all the info I've been able to put together I'd estimate the housing bottom/stabilization to happen in roughly 9mths to 1 yr from right now.
And if the market is truly a forward looking animal that sees approx 6mths into the future I'm guessing that the buying won't start for at least 3 mths to 6 mths from right now.
Put another way...we have 4 1/2-6mths more downside in the overall market.
Just a humble opinion by your's truly of course, but that's what I'm going on for my strategy.