Replies to post #59443 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Fox13]

Nice work, Learnin’. I was just going to post the following message, when I got your second message. I will post unchanged, for entertainment.

“Learnin’ great job. From your chart, it appears clearly that Jan and Aug were good while most others were at best mediocre. I say that because if you decide to play “time decay / trend” you do not want a “whipsaw” action in which you can be caught and beaten badly. Then, cones the big trick: if the trend is up (resulting in low volatility) time decay is continuous and early before OE. You base your trade on early establishing calendar spreads (see Aug). The reverse is true when the trend is down, like Jan. Volatility increases and we have vacudation. Calendar spreads are risky and IMHO should be constructed carefully and only LATE before expiration. I don’t know if it makes sense but this is one way of playing it.

I agree with your scenario for next week except that an intra week brutal turn-around cannot be excluded. Do you want to play it?”