Replies to post #1067 on Value Microcaps Food, Agriculture and Soft Commodi

[cartonet]

Any indications we have to look for before we get to think they are over liquidation? what a sell off!

[nutsaboutgolf2001]

I joined the party today, selling about 20 % of my portfolio but sold almost no ag just repositioned some options. But this is sure looking ugly.

I did an interesting analysis last night - with commodity stocks down but the Dow rallying (that was yesterday), I was interested in seeing what exactly was rising. Using VV, it became clear that value stocks (those selling at deep discounts to VV's determined values) were almost all falling to levels (PE levels or GPE ratios) almost never seen before. So what was rising - things that VV puts a very low relative value on (like housing etc). I would not touch any of the risers with a 50 foot poll, so that convinced me that yesterday's rally had no staying power and the only rally that might would have to be lead up by value stocks. So I started selling in earnest this morning and was still selling by the close. I'm hoping that I'm wrong and that we will see a strong rebound later this week but if it's not a rebound in value stocks then I'll probably continue to sell.