Replies to post #12600 on Hurricane Stocks (HSTOCKS)

[matt24d]

Plus the stuff that just pushed off the African coast. There is lots of potential for these cane plays to have major runs.

[Deewar25]

that's like saying buy TAYD because a 9 on the richter scale could happen on the west coast any day...geez...I study this chit something fierce (for 1 to make money, for 2, general fascination of storms) - just because you have a warm gulf, doesn't mean you are guaranteed a cat 5...most of the models are saying cat 3 at best for landfall, and even Dr Masters (who is often bang on) says maybe cat 1 or 2 for landfall. Why go assume otherwise?

Essentially all the models are now showing Texas landfall, and as I said, that really limits your plays...PHHM, STRL, maybe BUGS...thats about it realistically - IPII likely won't get business from that at all, and WEGI is too small to likely get business as well that far west. The trading today reflects that logic. Even as is, they need high cat 3 or higher at landfall for there to be a significant need for their services anyway.

As for Josephine..not gonna happen...wind shear is too high and initial path was open sea anyway - that's not going to change.

You don't hold these plays, you trade in and out as the forecast changes...dead money for now...