I agree that it may be starting the process of rolling over, in that the 10,66 MACD of the NDX was less today than yesterday for the first time since 7/24, but until the slope of the MACD (instantaneous rate of change of a function, smoothed over an 11 day period) actually goes negative we are not quite there yet. If commodities are collapsing, how was it that oil was up almost two bucks today?
I make no qualitative or quantitative judgments on your calls. They are what they are and anyone can make their own judgments as to their long term value or veracity. I was just trying to illustrate by my coin flip example that the nature of statistics is such that one should not attribute too much credence to a seemingly implausible string of events, or even a single occurrence for that matter. The probability of an individual getting struck by lightning is exceeding low, but as Expected Value (probability of a single occurrence multiplied by the number of opportunities) predicts, people get struck by lightning every day. People choose to believe in many things which can never be proven or disproven (e.g. the various religious dogma), so it really comes down to what one can live with. Ask someone if they believe in ghosts or the supernatural, and they will likely say "of course not", but those are central tenets of many of the world's religions.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
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