capt - The market has already proven that the fixation on commodities is over. It is trending down as commodities drop. This will continue because now the markets are looking at the real problem which is financials.
Are you saying that my calls are no better than a coin flip? I would beg to differ. You can't mean that. You must just be stating a general truth, with which I agree.
I guess you can pass the bathwater because I certainly do not believe my consistency is the result of luck. I would say that "certain market conditions, such as terrorist attacks, etc." could temporarily interfere with my calls. So I suppose bad luck would be to blame if my calls were postponed. I can remember how the Fed announcement would cause wild gyrations in the markets. But the markets always returned to their normal course when the gyrations subsided.
On the few occasions I have been wrong of late, it has been when I let my own emotions interfere with my method. I suppose that is true of most.
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