Replies to post #4331 on Tri-Valley Corp (fka TVLYQ)

[jonesieatl]

Here's something that DID go up ....

.... besides the operating losses.

Another 600,000 shares were issued issued in about 2 1/2 months.

The number of shares of Registrant's common stock outstanding at April 30, 2008, was 26,404,109.

The number of shares of Registrant's common stock outstanding at July 11, 2008, was 27,012,589.

Anybody remember what that 600K shares was for? I don't remember seeing any 8-K's on private placements. Maybe it's in the 10-Q , I haven't gone through the entire thing yet.

jonesie

[jonesieatl]

Searching For PV Oil & Moffat Gas in the 10-Q

Back when the 2007 10-K was filed we saw a 'discrepancy' between Light Sweet Crude Oil closing prices and what TIV sold their oil for during 2007.

While the simple average of Light Sweet closing prices was $74.94 in 2007 , TIV sold their oil for an average price of $58.23/bbl , or about 22% less.

From the 2007 10-K:

Average Sales Price  
         2007                   2006  
  Gas(MCF)   Oil(BBL)   Gas(MCF)   Oil(BBL)  
      
   $7.15      $58.23     $6.45      $57.10

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29269273

The average price TIV got for NG was about right on the money , as the simple average of NG monthly closing prices in 2007 was $7.24/mcf and TIV got $7.15/mcf.

So as I touched on in the post replied to here , perhaps that 'discount-to-market' holds true for 2008 as well.

If we assume that TIV gets 22% less than Light Sweet closing market prices , then TIV's 2Q08 revenues would have been:

April: $343,380

May: $367,334

leaving $539,286 for June.

If non-confidential production in June was similar to April's and May's , then there could have been June revenues of approx. $184,000 to be spread over PV and Moffat 'C' production.

Okay lol , that's the best I can do.

jonesie

[jonesieatl]

"What am I missing? Anybody?"

I found 10 more minutes before I gotta go , so here's food for thought:

In the past when I've estimated TIV's quarterly revenues as calculated by what they reported to DOGGR and multiplying by the closing price of LSC and NG each month ... my spreadsheet nets out TIV's portion , i.e. , it takes out the OPUS cut and an estimate of recovery costs , royalties etc.

Since I haven't updated that spreadsheet through 2Q08 as of yet , when I did the calcs in the post replied to here , I did NOT net down TIV's portion.

I guess the underlying question is this: Are the Oil/Gas revenues reported in the 2Q08 Quarterly Report ($1.25MM) net after all the deductions , or gross before the deductions.

Since I haven't seen any mention of 'we paid OPUS this or that' in the Q .... I'm thinking they're already net , which is kind of a 'duh' since TIV would only report the revenues which accrue to TIV.

So ..... if $1.25MM is actually somewhere around 20% of the GROSS .... then that would mean the GROSS was in fact something like $6.25MM!

Even if we put that 2007 'discount' of 22% on TIV's production sales we'd still have $100/bbl average sales price.

Maybe even knock that down a little more since PV is 'heavy' oil , geez , call it $90/bbls.

Divide THAT into $6.25MM and you get over 69,000 bbls of gross production in 2Q!

If April was same ol' same ol' production of around 4000 BOE per month , that leaves 65,000 bbls equivalent of oil/gas to spread over May and June , with possibly most of THAT being in June.

In any event , it's entirely possible that TIV was in fact producing an average of around 1000 BOEPD in May and June , with May probably being somewhat lower on average and June being somewhat higher.

Kick those numbers around a bit and see what you think , but again , if the TIV revenues in the Quarterly are net (and I think they are) .... TIV is producing a lot more than I might have thought.

And the bigger the discount they might be giving up on 'heavy' oil , the higher the production would have had to be to hit those net revenues numbers.

Any thoughts? Basically , if ever I'm wrong I will certainly admit it , and it appears that I could have been wrong based on this quick re-evaluation of the 2Q08 10-Q.

That's all I got , I'm outta here for a few.

jonesie