I looked over the reports on the company web page. Looks good to me. There is obviously a range of risks in the various plays they mention in the broad review of geological potential, but the single focal point on pinnacle reefs is convincing, and the reports were written in 2006, and used around $60 a barrel to come up with a P10 of $50,000,000 in net present value.
Additionally, it does show the that area is clearly within the Barnett Shale area of coverage, claiming only that it was not in the "fairway" of the play in 2006. The meaning of that has changed quite a lot in the last 2 years, as other areas in the Barnett that had been assumed to be outside the proven productive regions were proven up as more productive than the original discoveries. Still, that appears to still be a future potential rather than an immediately actionable potential, although one which should add some current interest and value to the lease holdings.
The limit in the report seems to be the impact of having widely scattered holdings and the need to conduct additional mapping and 3-D seismic to determine development potential. It may be possible to apply other techniques such as geochemical evaluations to further limit the initial targets and attain better results at lower costs... but, perhaps the production history in the region will limit the utility of those tools? Don't know.
Otherwise, there is still some outside potential for new finds in new zones or in deeper holes testing new potential, and residual potential in the possibility that new technologies might be able to enhance recovery from tapped out fields.
Given a price of oil around $100 seems a more rational near term target than $60, it seems a good bet that the properties will have something at least near the value in the reports... with kickers from Barnett potential being more realistic now... but it still seems unlikely that those values will be realized without additional expenditures in mapping and seismic to prove the potentials meet the reported probabilities.
There could be a transformational occurrence were someone to decide to test the Barnett nearby and find a positive result. I expect that test will happen, in time, and don't expect that the intrinsic pessimism fostered by existing holders of productive leases, regarding expansion of the Barnett potential to wider regions, is really all that useful. Reality is no one knows until the holes have been drilled and tested... but also that the nature of the industry in risk taking is, against its image, highly conservative and driven far more by relative proximity to what is proven than by reason applied to what might be reasonably inferred... I'd give it interesting potential to have Barnett resource utility.... but proving it will be costly... and unlikely to be a result of PGPM's own efforts ???
The reports also point out the PGPM holdings had increased at the time of the report, with the additional holdings being added NOT included in the report. That raises a number of interesting questions, including the extent to which holdings might have been increased in the time since the report.
I take the report as being a fairly solid indication of potential value that exists... if still not indicating much ability to have that value be expanded with the necessary additional work required to improve the probabilities...
Leaves questions about the stated plan of PGPM to rework wells and THEN drill new holes... which could happen if the existing production is sufficient to pay for the reworking while leaving enough additional to more than cover costs. Prices over the last year might have enabled some of that... ???
Still leaves more questions than answers... but... combined with the move up market, suggests that things are moving in the right direction to enable recognition and perhaps development of the potential values.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
