Hmmm. Technical stuff on the short range here is likely useful only for picking an entry point... and we're pretty much there, given the clock ticking toward mid August doesn't have that many ticks on it.
The longer range chart stuff is likely completely useless given the scale of the changes being undertaken. The shifts in value here are going to be a function of how the reorganization stuff sorts itself out, and we won't really have a decent picture of what's what until they report out what they've done... and charts likely won't help you predict much of that... with one exception:
A one year daily chart shows 450 million shares accumulated since March... but a two year weekly chart shows 460 million shares in distribution in the same time period... so, flip a coin ??? What percentage of the authorized and outstanding is that number? All that really says to me is "something is happening"...
Otherwise, the numbers that will matter now are the shares and values per share in assets held in IMVS... as even PGPM values will be determined in terms of IMVS shares and notes...
The IMVS chart is now a completely blank slate... which, for me, says that is the chart that is giving you the best and most accurate picture here.
Looking at it that way, the net impact from what we know about what is going on SHOULD be positive, as moving up market and gaining transparency with reporting status is a generally very good thing... but that isn't without risk, either: If what there is to see when transparency is gained is ugly, gaining a higher level of transparency, while good for stock holders generally, isn't necessarily good for share value specifically. You have to assume that this is not American Idol... that they aren't stepping out onto a larger stage without first knowing what the impact of a higher level of scrutiny will bring...
That's about it... I think the best technical analysis you can apply here is fundamental analysis... What is the actual value in hand, what are the risks, and what are the plans to upgrade the values and limit the risks ? Otherwise, I think the move up market makes a statement that it isn't likely to trade for LESS than it does now... when we get to see what they've been planning and doing. The shift creates a new opportunity to generate a new dynamic... if the new potential is something they can use to get this puppy to shift gears... ???
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