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downsideup

07/30/08 12:29 PM

#236 RE: downsideup #235

Oil back up, now looks like it is parking at 122. I agree with the CNBC talking heads de jure, today saying the long term looks like it will be higher by the end of the year, Goldman saying back up to $149, based on demand destruction in U.S. driving habits barely denting demand relative to the global growth story.

I'm also thinking we are likely to see a significant trend shift here from a major bull market atmosphere in oil to more of a trading environment. I think oil will move higher on news from time to time, then settle back down to the low end of the range between $120 and $150.... drifting generally higher, but not with the same sort of power behind it that it has shown of late. Expect more stability looking forward than we've had the last year... and we should start to see some adjustments being made to the new reality looking forward, too.

Oil shares today are doing pretty well across the board, even if DBRM seems to be drifting here, waiting for news. That seems reasonable to me, too, given that DBRM has more share specific drivers now, that are far more meaningful to the company and the share price than oil prices, whether they are moving up or down.