John,
Usually what I've seen happen is the stock opens lower the day the divy is paid because the divy gets minused from the share price. Usually on that day, when people have their divy, many who bought just for the divy will sell. This frequently knocks the share price lower than it's true value, because there are more sellers than buyers at that time. I've found this is frequently a good time to buy cheap shares (if so inclined, like say, if I would think there may be a reverse merger in the works and the price could pop again).
The price usually over the next day/few days will move back to whatever the current valuation of the company is, after all the sellers have cleared out.
If the company was sold, the divy paid out, but the company kept a few million to do/acquire more business, then that would be where the new valuation would come from, including any other businesses they may have/be involved in. That is how to place a value on the shares once the divy has been paid. And a good way to decide when/if to sell.
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