Rink: Points taken. However they can be explained by the fact that "oklane" appears to type-copy his posts from proprietary material. The errors would be his typographical. He also edits posts and adds comments. That is why I regret he does not give links and sources. But, as I said, his past excerpts have proven to be accurate.
Merril Lynch does provide such retail notes. The responsibility for compiling them is not that of any particular stock analyst. Osha would be a consumer of such a survey, not the author.
(edit for Rupert) Here's the latest Osha comments I could find - Typically Osha I'd say:
(Edit: Rupert, just saw your comments. You might be right in your explanation of 'althon'. It's at least understandable. It does however go slightly against the general picture painted below, but that might still be correct as the general pc picture is bound to be tainted by Intel).
Joe Osha, Merrill Lynch Semiconductor Analyst, made these remarks regarding first-quarter inventory data for the semiconductor industry:
After two years of grinding down, inventory levels moved broadly higher in the first quarter of 2004. The most notable increases were in the distribution, electronics manufacturing and wireline-communications-equipment segments, all of which saw first-quarter inventories increase in days of sales and dollar terms (albeit off of low bases). Personal-computer (PC) original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and wireless handset balance sheets look better. Semiconductor device manufacturer inventories continued to steam ahead. The overall picture is surprisingly benign, especially given the market's negative reaction to first-quarter reports. We think that investors, spooked by a return to bubble-style inventory overbuilds, may be over-reacting to supply-chain activity that is, in reality, normal for a recovering business. The PC supply chain spent the first quarter in inventory-reduction mode. Demand was weaker than expected as well, so the result was a slight increase in days of sales from 53 days to 56 days. Dollar inventories declined by 3% sequentially following several quarters of growth. Reported wireline-communication-equipment days of inventory increased from 67 days to 85 days, which is slightly above the pre-bubble average of 83 days. Aggregate sales declined by 9% sequentially, while reported inventories in the supply chain increased by 10% on a dollar basis. We think that some of the inventory growth is attributable to zero-cost inventory being replaced by new products on OEM and EMS balance sheets. Wireless handset OEM and EMS inventories remained flat during the first quarter on an absolute dollar basis. However, days of inventory increased from 41 days last quarter to 49 days, which is consistent with historic trends during the first calendar quarter. Looking at our 30-company sample of semiconductor device makers, inventory in days of sales terms ticked up two days, to 73 days, after declining for 12 straight quarters previously. Inventories have been building in dollar terms for two years, but sales have grown more quickly. We note that device makers appear to have borne much more of the inventory risk this cycle, probably as a result of having decreased bargaining power vis-à-vis their customers.
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