Replies to post #1196 on IDM Pharma, Inc. (IDMI)

[tzm]

Approval is obviously key and I wouldn't think that IDM would want to announce a huge payday deal right before they hear from the CHMP. Staying humble and not flaunting the potential monetary success would be prudent when dealing with a regulatory body. Remember that this is an orphan drug that helps a very small patient population with no improvements in 20 years and so IDM has an image of fighting a noble cause. There is no need to remind the voting members of the CHMP that Walbert and all the rest of the officers/directors are gonna be filthy rich if they get approval.

Deal or no deal in place, IDM is gonna fly if they get approval. Oncology drugs is the sector where many big pharmas are trying to find the next blockbuster. Especially oncology drugs that show potential to treat multiple cancers (think Avastin). MTP/Mifamurtide fights lung metastesis regardless of the primary tumor site and so it has the potential to be given to any cancer patient at risk of the cancer spreading to the lungs. Yes, osteosarcoma is the pathway that IDM is using to get approval and orphan drug protection rights (brilliant strategy) but the big payoff is going to be in the broader oncology potential. Big pharma would be salivating over a drug with this kind of broad oncology potential and very strong generic protection (7yrs US and 10yrs Euro for orphan drugs).

Did you see the analysis of the small subset of patients with metastatic osteosarcoma? Here's the link:
http://ir.idm-pharma.com/phoenix.zhtml?c...

Similar survival trends in this small subset gives us a glimpse of the treatment potential to other cancers that spread to the lungs. I always hate to say anything that could be construed as hype but L-MTP-PE has blockbuster potential and the takeover price upon approval will reflect this potential.

However, IDM is still a speculative stock since it has no earnings and most of it's pps value is hinging on the EMEA. So please only allot the portion of your portfolio that you feel comfortable with no matter what happens because the potential in this stock makes it very easy to get in over your head and take on too much risk. That's my disclaimer and good luck to everyone.