Ok, Where the fk is Tsafi?
Bombs and Oil
15 Jul 2008
If international oil prices look bad today, there could be much worse to come. President Bush has given Israel an amber light for a military attack on Iran, which is OPEC's second largest crude supplier after Saudi Arabia. That's threatening talk coming on top of the sabre-rattling that's going on between the US, Israel and Iran.
The best case scenario is that public talk about an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is meant to get Tehran to accept the latest package of incentives to abandon its uranium enrichment programme that has been offered by the international community.
The worst case scenario is that Tel Aviv takes Washington's words as encouragement and launches an attack before the end of this year, when the Bush administration's tenure runs out. To take the latter first, there's a range of options available to Tehran to pick and choose from, to retaliate against Israeli and US interests.
It could mine the Straits of Hormuz through which 40 per cent of the world's oil shipping passes. It could hit Tel Aviv, other Israeli cities, or Saudi and Kuwaiti oil fields with medium range ballistic missiles. Iraq has a majority Shia population which could be incited against US troops stationed there.
In addition Tehran could enter into an opportunistic alliance with the Taliban to harry US forces in Afghanistan. Any combination of such developments could cause the world's oil markets to catch fire and trigger a global depression.
Even the best case scenario is not a good one, as loose talk about war gives oil markets the jitters. According to the US National Intelligence Estimate released in December last year, Iran stopped its nuclear weaponisation programme in 2003. While Washington has refused any diplomatic relationship with Tehran, President Ahmadinejad has indicated that his government will consider the opening of a US interests section in Tehran. That could be the way forward.
It would mean not only that Iranian citizens will be able to travel to the US, but also that US officials would get to observe Iran’s complex politics first hand. That may be what it takes to defuse the crisis. Since further oil price rises will hit India badly, not to mention the inciting of jehadi passions in the region, New Delhi could usefully offer to play the role of interlocutor between the US and Iran since it has good relations with both.
(source: The Times Of India)
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