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AnderL

06/30/08 7:34 PM

#30196 RE: chichi2 #30192

response to peak oil response. how any revisions has this been?

reason I'm saying is that technology surmounds most difficulties. for example, what set apart the use of metals for ancient civlizations? why did they transition from copper, to bronze, to iron. all the required knowledge in smelting and alloys were there from the late copper to early bronze age. the reason was that technology had not reached a point where fires could be stoked to the heat needed to smelt iron. also the mining advancements were not there that would allow for deeper and cheaper excavations. early copper age use of metals were surface level at best. over time as machinery advanced the cost per square foot of earth removal came down. more and more earth could be excavated and even msaller viens of material could be pulled.

there are quotes that there is more gold molecules in the ocean than all the gold that is in the ground. why cant we get at it. the technology isn't there and its cost prohibitive.

peak oil is a classic model of of economics. when scarcity of resources and growing demand puts critical pressureon an environment to focus investment into advancing more resources to eet demand and the reactive over compensation. this model has been used in biological economics since its inception.

cina has heavily subsidized its energy infrstructure and that is already putting a lot of pressure on the governments ability to control it. the price adjustments its made recently in gasoline prices internally along with the shortages in its coal, and oil reserves for two years running are buckling the system. it is forced to make adjustments which have greater psychological impacts than gradual price increases in a free market economy. that should have an effect on demand.

we are nearing demand destruction levels as energy is running at 6% of global GDP. we are talking probably $150 to 200 a barrel depending on what estimates they are using for global GDP.