anyone have an idea when the production race is going to start. I'm estimated about +5-7 mbpd coming online by the end of 2009.
The bottleneck might be in the tanker market as there are not enough available to meet new cargos, currently about 10-30 ships available at any given time. The pricing market in transport is more volatile than oil prices. They can run up quickly when charter captains realize a shortage of available ships. There are quite a few newbuilds being completed in 2009-10, but they are only going to keep pace with future production.
I think that we might see higher (and more volatile) oil prices in 2009 with price drops going into 2010 for about 2-3 years. Oil transport should do extremely well, but costs to develop fields will create a base on oil prices. What's the current cost per barrel to put up a new rig? $50, $60?
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