I haven't begun to parse all the timing vs value elements inherent in having not one, but TWO of the same type of opportunities on board here. Sanity check this for me:
The immediate target, starting now, is an 19,000 acre "area of mutual interest" and a joint venture with Chevron that has three discovery field potential...
But there is also ANOTHER similar AMI and JV project in the same area.
Success in the first wells drilled in the first AMI, I expect, will accelerate development of more wells in the first AMI.
Success in the first AMI, I expect, will also accelerate development in the second AMI... and success in THAT effort should provide additional potential for leveraging initial successes into other projects, which is when things ought to get REALLY interesting...
The first nine wells in the first AMI should all be done within a month of starting to drill... so there should be some build up of anticipation as a potential drilling date gets closer, and more after a date is announced... and then, will we get a flurry of news announcements as each well is spudded and pushed along... or will we be having the anticipation of news of the results building as results of tight holes are kept under wraps under a close hold ? Given they've already tied up the leases over such a large area, I'd guess we might hear news of progress as it occurs... ???
By the end of July or early August we ought to know what they have found in the three fields in the first AMI, and should begin to anticipate hearing more about plans for their future development. Initially, there ought to be an expansion from the original agreement to drill nine wells, to drill 20 wells to test each of the high potential prospects identified. I'd guess permitting issues might skew the sequencing some... or might make the full 20 holes take a bit longer than a few months.
At some point, with a good find or two, while the first AMI fields are still being drilled for full production... we ought to hear something about planning for the second AMI...
And that's about the limit of my vision in crystal ball gazing here, so far...
The pace of drilling and the level of initial success at the start are key... as the limits of the cash on hand in extending the effort are tested by taking more time, and by drilling more while finding less. Early success enables sustaining a higher pace with production paying for more work, and sustaining the pace of drilling both lowers overall costs and gets you more of a return, or higher production, faster. A well designed and well executed sequence of exploration activities that find success and put finds into production rapidly... can become rapidly transformational... which is another advantage of having the major partner with both the in house market demand and the operational capacity to sustain the acceleration in both exploration and in volume of production.
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