I took the liberty of adjusting Jim6103's price forecast for the increase in shares, which only changes the end result by 4 cents:
Based on Post by: jim6103 Date: Saturday, April 19, 2008 1:38:00 PM
SRSR price forecast - 30-90 day time frame:
With all the excellent information that this board has supplied in the way of sound due diligence and assumptions based upon those observations, I would like to present a new price forecast. My major assumption is that the price of SRSR will spike to 10.8% of its NI43-101 reserve compliant market valuation. I use this parameter as Commerce Resource's price spiked to this valuation as their reserves became known. There is no guarantee that SRSR's price will follow the same path, but it is at least based upon the price history of another Niobium/Tantalum junior exploration company. I believe this to be an apple to an apple comparison.
Major assumptions:
1) 376 million pounds Niobium @ $29/lb. = $10,904,000,000 market value
2) Tantalum occuring at the same ratio as at Commerce Resources Fir Deposit: 5.6 lb. Niobium to 1 lb. Tantalum = 67,142,857 lbs of Tantalum @ $70/lb. = $4,700,000,000 market value
3) Total estimated resource for Lake Nemegosenda - $15,604,000,000
5) Fully diluted stock: 740,016,058 shares *
6) No estimate of Niobium/Tantalum for the other 5 targets of the Nemegosenda property as there is no basis for an assumption. Note that this price estimate may prove to be low based upon this omission.
Total Resource Value ($15,604,000,000) X 10.8% = $1,685,232,000 (market cap)
Price per share estimate = $1,685,232,000 Div by 740,016,058 = $2.28 *
When can we expect this conservative price estimate? When the NI43-101 compliant resource status is achieved Long term, I still believe that this price estimate is understated as we have 5 other targets on the property and 4 other properties in the portfolio that have not been included in this $2.28 price estimate.
All worth the wait for this potentially life changing stock....All the best....All opinions....Jim
* Note: Updated from 726 million to 740 million shares from information in June 5, 2006 shareholder letter. This changed calculation from $2.32 to $2.28.