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bayfisherii

06/06/08 3:21 PM

#131157 RE: petemantx #131155

Unfortunately Petemantx,

I am not a geophysicist either. But I have been in energy for more than 30 years and am surrounded by many experts in my immediate family.

When making estimates geophysiscists will look at other producing formations in the same general era and that come from the same geologic time period. They also look for similar geologoic anomolies. One factor that really drives how much oil a geophysicist will forecast is the relativity in terms of distance another known zone is. In other words if a seismic anomaly is relativley close to known producing zone of the same geologic character then a geophysicist will be more apt to indicate a recoverable reserve figure in relation to size of thre known producing reserve. If the geologic anomaly is not close to a known producing reserve then the geophysicist will be more apt to discount the reserve volume.

In our case the closest know producing reserve is AKPO. The middle of Zone 4 is close to 150 kilometers from AKPO. So we may be seeing a very discouted forecast based on that distance.

But what do I know, I am not a geophysicist, just an old operator that has been in a lot of patches.