Hi Mariner,
Thanks so much for your Great Posts...
It is amazing how these one-liners from a few people (some already gone) bring about such long-winded replies from others...
To try to answer your question, it is so hard to say at this point exactly what kind of tonage we are talking about in the first few years. It will depend on many factors, but it is safe to say that Sarissa will work with whoever they JV with (IMO JV will likely happen) and come up with a plan to mine this in a smart and highly profitable fashion. The first year's mining Ops will likely be somewhat lite, but gradually increase over the first 2-3 years as they build out the operation and improve the infrastructure of the site (including roads, refining facilities, etc...).
If we (Only) have 20,000,000 Tons Niobium (I think 2-3x this for entire site) and we say this is a '20 year mine' (I think 30 + years more likely) then we say: (approx)
20,000,000 Tons * .5 / 20 years = 5000 Tons of processed material / year to be shipped. You can take that out further to say: 5000 Tons *2000 = 10,000,000 pounds of refined Niobium * spot price of $25/pound = $250,000,000 / year for 20 years = $5,000,000,000 (plus increases in price of Niobium from ever increasing demand as suplly gets shorter = more pressure to find & dig/process more. This is how we got to our 5 Billion, but that figure is so low it is not funny.
This is Only the Niobium we are talking about here, not all the rest of it (REE's and any other Uranium, etc...)
Niobium alone IMO is 2x + that, so the figure over 20 years Niobium is 10 Billion not 5 billion. Then you get into the real money... REE's. Another leauge altogether... This jumps this one claim up into another level. We Really could be talking 2x the entire Niobnium output if the Cores come back with the REE's as expected...
A whole new game then... $20 billion??? More??? Who Knows???
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Question for the board - how much (refined) material have we come up with as an estimated amount to be produced and sold in the first couple of years ??
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Keep in mind that the End Company receiving the materials, wherever they are, will be working just as hard as Sarissa to get this material to them in a timely fashion and expense...
The cheaper the companies receiving this material can get the processed ore to them the less impact it has on their bottom line...
Cheers,
ThegoodlifeGeo
"Men who for truth and honor's sake
Stand fast and suffer long.
Brave men who work while others sleep,
Who dare while others fly...
They build a nation's pillars deep
And lift them to the sky."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson