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SyndicateTwo

05/09/08 3:46 PM

#557 RE: alero #556

I was just looking at a bunch of oil related stocks and specifically the July CLM8 oil futures chart and they are ALL making the same pattern - a clear 5th wave move. Oil itself is making a very high volume 5th wave here which I think suggests a washout. Kind of a reverse capitulation.

HAL's chart is similar to oil, but doesn't really make money off of oil like XOM. They just get paid to drill for others. So, oil's rise only benefits HAL if companies and countries think the price of oil will stay this high justifying the expense of paying a HAL to do what they need.

With all these charts hitting the same 5th wave pattern here on declining volume other that oil's chart, I have to assume we're at a near end and all these could reverse dramatically soon.

Today I started to sell 50 share blocks of my HAL position while keeping my long puts. The idea here is to average out of 1/2 position of the stock and re-buy more shares with the larger amount of money created by the high price sales and (hopefully) lower price re-buys.

Also now starting to short the June $50 and $52.50 calls.

This 5th wave move in HAL like I said now could turn at anytime because it has satisfied a 5th wave having made a higher high than the 3rd. But the fibo projections are $50 and then $52 on a 1.50%.

So, the upside is limited.

But 5ths are hard to predict.

I do see a big reversal coming in this entire sector though with all these charts making the same 5th waves.