Replies to post #127360 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[oil-cowboy]

Hmmm,,, what if we actually have 14BBls...??

Crazy to think we could have that off Kina alone.

Off to work with a smile.

Thnx Ruby.

[bayfisherii]

So Ruby, let's have a little Friday fun with the math.

What if the JDZ (alone) equals the highly touted discovery off of the East Coast of Brazil?

If so, then we would be looking at closer to 33 billion recoverable barrels.

Without knowing how much is in each of the zones 1 thru 4, I am going to assume an equal distribution. That would give ERHC a proven reserve portfolio of 4.5 billion barrels.

Additionally, I think that in today’s $100/Bbl plus market a proven reserve price of $10/Bbl is low. Back when oil was $30/Bbl (just a few years ago) proven reserves were priced at $5/Bbl proven. At a $115/Bbl a proven reserve price of $12/Bbl considering the location and the quality of this oil is IMO not a stretch.

So if we accept all of the assumptions above (bit of a stretch but after all it is Fun Friday), then once the 33 billion barrel recoverable reservoir is proven then the price per share of ERHC would be........drum roll please............. $71.31/share. And best of all we haven't even considered the EEZ in this silly analysis.


Now please understand what I wrote above is a BIG stretch, but what is so tantalizing about this stock and what keeps all of us coming back to this board, is, IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. Granted it is a stretch and probably a huge stretch but it could happen.

I have been the energy industry all of my life. A good example is Prudhoe Bay. The Sadlerochit reservoir which is the primary reservoir for the North Slope has currently produced close to 12 Billion barrels of oil and estimates are that eventually it will yield close to 16 billion given today's technology. What is amazing is that we have only found half of the reservoir. The reservoir is (what is called) a sheered anticline and the other half has never been found. Now this could never be the case between the JDZ and East coast of Brazil as we have completely different geology. But my point is, there are still a lot of areas that have not been completely explored and of all of them the GOG tops the list as a highly probable catch basin for hydrocarbons. Point being the, JDZ could be an elephant or it could be a Mega Elephant. Hold on to your seats over the next 2 years cause the ride on ERHC is going to get bumpy and hopefully a lot of fun.