click on "Replied2Msg" to see chart see chart, THEN click on "Replied2Msg" AGAIN to see more charts Below is by Tim Ord 05/21 regard GDX and $XAU -- Seasonality and Buy Signal
Chart courtesy of http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com. The McClellan Summation index for GDX has turned up from below -750 and has triggered a buy signal by that method. Over the last couple of days the Oscillator has made higher highs which show A/D line is getting stronger and suggests the current rally is getting stronger. The GDX rally started May 1 where Seasonality turned bullish. Seasonality remains bullish into the first to mid June. From a June high, Seasonality turns down and usually finds a low around the July 4 holiday.
The reason we are bring this up is that the current rally may find resistance around the previous high on GDX which is near 51.50 range and if that corresponds to the timeframe that shows bearish Seasonality then we would expect a consolidation to start. This potential consolidation could run until Seasonality turns bullish again which is first of July where the strongest part of the rally should begin.
The bull trend in the gold index is expected to get much stronger after July low and we do not plan to miss it. We remain bullish on the XAU on the bigger time frames and we are long the XAU from 12/18/07 at 162.05.
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