Replies to post #919 on A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board (AIMUSERS)

[lostcowboy]

Hi Conrad, If I get your drift you want a contest where there is no previous stock history to look at. What if Tom thinks of a number between zero and whatever and post it to the board each day. Each day is a month! that way we get ten years of data in 120 days. At the end of each year we compare. Maybe we should have two winners. One for the portfolio worth the most, and one for the lowest average cost. It will be interesting if one person can take them both.

Oh can I enroll Synchrovest in the contest, he would like to compete?

[aptus]

Hello Conrad,

Yes, you are correct. There are a myriad of ways to operate AIM and I'd be surprised if any two people operated it in exactly the same way over the course of one year (even discounting stock selection).

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to actually determine which way is best is to methodically backtest. Of course this is nothing new as traders have been doing this for decades. I'm starting a push with the hopes of seeing AIMers jump on this particular bandwagon.

That way when someone says this way or that way is "better," he'll have numbers to back up his claim.

As for the reference system you referred to, I think we already have one -- that being buy and hold. In my mind B&H is the ultimate reference system. If you can consistently beat B&H with less risk, then you have a winner in my opinion. To take this further, the ultimate reference system is to buy and hold a major index (DOW, NASDAQ, S&P). If you can AIM the index and consistently beat it with less risk, again I think you have a winner.

Nice to see you over on this board. Quite frankly I'm surprised at just how quickly everyone jumped from SI. Now that's a particularly fine example of how quickly things can change for online companies.

Regards,
Mark.

http://www.automaticinvestor.com