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imho

04/11/08 8:10 PM

#61205 RE: smooth2o #61199

smooth2o,

There's only a few things that will truly change the SP and move it into the 30's:
1. Failure of AMD
2. Renegotiation of the x86 license to drop the lawsuit and the EU action
3. Continued blow out earnings


Sure the above will help move it in the right direction. But I think Intel needs a catalyst. It needs significant revenue contribution from an unexpected source; a product recently introduced

Here is the formula for Intel to make pre-2000 stock moves.

1) Intel introduces new products aimed at new markets. These products are sufficiently distant from their CPU/PC business that analyst are skeptical and the stock market reaction is muted.

2) Sometime in the not too distant future, Intel pre-announces better than expected revenues (not margins- but revenues)

3) Intel indicates the main reason for pre-announcement comes directly from the new product in step 1)

4) Blast-off!

Step 1) is achieved. Steps 2) and 3) are key. If they happen, watch out.

The nice thing is that Intel has not one or two, but a number of new things that, at least technically, have potential. Only one of these products needs to make a positive dent in revenues. I like their chances considering their recent execution and focus on customers.

IMHO