Denial
IF the Sadr forces won, why would they stop fighting and declare a cease fire
This was a clear victory for the IA
Iraqi government says operations in Basra will continue
Posted by: McQ
Bill Roggio:
One day after Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, called for his fighters to abandon combat, the fighting in Basrah has come to a near-halt, and the Iraqi security forces are patrolling the streets. While Sadr spokesman said the Iraqi government agreed to Sadr's terms for the cease-fire, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has said the security forces will continue operations in Basrah in the South. Meanwhile, the Mahdi Army took heavy casualties in Basrah, Nasiriyah, Babil, and Baghdad over the weekend, despite Sadr's call for the end of fighting.
Maliki was clear that operations would continue in the South. "The armed groups who refuse al Sadr's announcement and the pardon we offered will be targets, especially those in possession of heavy weapons," Maliki said, referring to the 10-day amnesty period for militias to turn in heavy and medium weapons. "Security operations in Basra will continue to stop all the terrorist and criminal activities along with the organized gangs targeting people."
The Iraqi military said it was moving in more forces into the South after admitting it was surprised by the level of resistance encountered in Basrah. "Fresh military reinforcements were sent to Basra to start clearing a number of Basra districts of wanted criminals and gunmen taking up arms," said Brigadier General Abdel Aziz al Ubaidi, the operations chief for the Ministry of Defense. "Preparations for fresh operations have been made to conduct raids and clearance operations in Basra ... [and] military operations would continue to restore security in Basra."
That supports the scenario I laid out below where the purpose of the operations is to clear Basra of criminal gangs, their influence and control.
Roggio continues, pointing out that in the clash between the Iraqi Army and the Mahdi army, it appears the Mahdi army came out on the worst end of it:
The reasons behind Sadr's call for a cessation in fighting remain unknown, but reports indicate the Mahdi Army was having a difficult time sustaining its operations and has taken heavy casualties. "Whatever gains [the Mahdi Army] has made in the field [in Basrah], they were running short of ammunition, food, and water," an anonymous US military officer serving in South told The Long War Journal. "In short [the Mahdi Army] had no ability to sustain the effort.
TIME's sources in Basrah paint a similar picture. "There has been a large-scale retreat of the Mahdi Army in the oil-rich Iraqi port city because of low morale and because ammunition is low due to the closure of the Iranian border," the magazine reported.
Those reports indicate a successful cordon was established isolating Mahdi troops and keeping them from being resupplied and reinforced. IOW, the handwriting was on the wall as to how this operation would end had the fighting continued.
The continuation of the security operation, talked about yesterday, seems to mean the IA has established control and is proceeding with its plans. Additionally, if the point needed to be made, IA reinforcements are arriving in the area. Most likely to tighten the cordon and be available should another round of fighting with the Mahdi army erupt. I would guess that will be most unlikely.
All the particulars of who did what to whom as far as brokering the cease fire will be sorted out I'm sure, but as far as I see it you have to work pretty hard to make this a victory for al Sadr and a defeat for Maliki. The side that is "continuing operations" is the side most reasonable people will consider to be the victor.
Fighting has also all but ceased in Baghdad's Sadr city and in Nasiriyah. An interesting nugget from Sadr city:
An unknown number of Mahdi Army fighters in the Iskan and Washash neighborhoods have gone against Sadr's demands to keep their weapons and have surrendered them to the military in accordance with the amnesty offer issued by Maliki.
And while the ISF is taking the lead in the Basra operation, it is also taking the lead in media operations as well.
From a second press conference held by Dr. Ali al-Dabbagh, spokesman for the Iraqi government and Major General Lua Aziz, spokesman for the ISF. MG Aziz sums up the operation [again the wording is awkward in some areas because it is translated from Arabic]:
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Let's start by the commanding operation of the 4th-of the 8th Division or in provinces like in Kut, Hillah, Karbala, Najaf [and] Diwianiyah; and all those provinces are under the responsibility of the 8th Division. Regarding Kut, at the beginning of the operation there was a presence of the enemy and the armed members. The commander of the 8th Division, who is one of the finest officers in the Ministry of Defense, he moved his headquarter to Kut and enhanced that province and that city with four companies. And he also led a clear operation or a clearing operation in Kut City from the presence of the armed men. The situation now in all the areas is calm and is controlled completely by the troops of the 8th Division.
There was an operation yesterday, yesterday night, in Al-Hashimiyah county that was based on intelligence reports and intel. There was some presence for armed men and so there were some troops moved and captured 25 armed men. And also they found weapon cache including different kinds of weapons. At Karbala the situation is calm and stable. The commanding operation in Karbala also headed a-also headed troops and with help from the citizens and would like to say that the citizens of Karbala, they showed us the places of those armed men. And in this operation the unit managed to capture 98 armed men; and the strange thing, two of them were Egyptians.
Everything in Diwianiyah is calm. Najaf also the situation is calm. And we haven't seen any incidents ever since the operation started on the 25th until now. The 10th Division that is controlling the three provinces, that's Maysan, Nasiriyah, and Muthanna.
[In] Al Muthanna province, ever since the operation started on [the] 25th until this morning, we haven't witnessed any kind of-any incidents. The security forces control that province in a good way.
Nasiriyah-in Nasiriyah, the situation was calm but it was kind of cautious. The security forces were deployed and they closed the entries of the province and that's why it was able to control the situation. The presence of the armed men was in Amarah and Maysan. Also the commander of the 10th Division in Amarah and he sent a battalion as well at the beginning of this month. And he gave instructions to them to move and the battalion moved and he himself led the brigade and the battalion. And the recent area that was cleared actually was yesterday after midnight: the city of Shatrah. There was the commander of the brigade who was heading the brigade and they went to Al Rafaye[ph] and Al Shatrah area and they cleared all those three areas.
In Basra, the 14th Division and the other units and troops in this province. The recent situation in Basra - that was yesterday - it was calm. Our troops managed to clear certain areas in Basra, Najubya[ph], Al Machel[ph], Al Ashar Wazuber[ph] and Garmat Ali and other places as well. Starting from today, we will work on clearing the other places from the wanted individuals and criminals and those who are still carrying weapons. Yesterday we apprehended 21 armed men and we wounded another six. Also the friendly forces and the coalition forces provided air support in Basra after there was a full deployment of a company.
The bold line again emphasizes that the operations continue in Basra.
Another interesting quote from Dr. Ali:
The guarantees for the Sadr Trend and for all Iraqis say that the Iraqi government has law and everyone should abide by the law. Regarding the general amnesty, and as I have said, we have-we are releasing a huge number of detainees. Regarding the investigation of those who have committed crime, there is also a commitment-as the statement says that there is cooperation so that those who committed crimes will be presented to court and prosecuted. And we will resort to the law. That's why-so all the detentions will not target only-will not target a certain trend, but will target only the criminals. And this is what the Iraqi government is doing and what it's committed to do.
The use of "trend" is more or less the same as we'd use "party" although, in this case, it has a armed branch as well. The discussion by Dr. Ali is about whether special demands were met for the "Sadr trend" to end the fighting. He's essentially saying "no". And, as is obvious, he's telling the reporter that the amnesty is a general one, not just one for the "Sadr trend". Also encouraging is the discussion of the rule of law.
And in answer to a question about reported complaints of "random raids":
We don't have any random raids and search operations because the units and the Army, instead of endangering themselves by going out, they should-they sometimes stay in the bases so that they can train themselves. Just going out and conducting raid operation-random raids is something not possible because all the raid operations are based on intelligence reports. But sometimes mistakes could happen. I hope you give us the name so that we can follow up.
A question from an LA Times reporter as to how well al Sadr's instructions were being followed by his followers, Dr. Ali says:
I think that the decision and the call made by Muqtada al-Sadr-Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr are for those who follow up and abide by his statement. Anyone who use his weapon and raise weapon will be an outlaw. And anyone who targets the institutes of the government will be-he will be violating the law and also violating the statement made by Muqtada al-Sadr. That's why the government is or will enforce the law on everyone. And this is what the government will do.
Pretty clear if you ask me.
Ali further clarifies it when answering a followup question:
We think that the decision made by Muqtada-Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr will isolate those criminal groups that tried to abuse and also break the law. And also they tried to abuse the Sadr Trend and the figure of the Sadr Trend. So after this statement, anyone who will carry weapon and anyone who will not or will continue to fight is a-will be considered as an outlaw. So anyone who will carry a weapon will be an outlaw. This initiative will also have a good contribution in stabilizing the situation. And we cannot deny that there were some groups that went to the streets because they thought the government is facing the Sadr Trend. And it's not true because we are not facing or where they-with any political trend, especially the Sadr Trend. Because the Sadr Trend is not facing the government. That's why we think that this statement will contribute in a good way in reducing the tension and also to stabilize the situation.
So again the claim is this continuing operation isn't and hasn't been about a confrontation between the government and al Sadr's group (which explains the hurried ceasefire much more reasonably than other scenarios).
But Ali makes it clear that there are some "criminals" within the "Sadr Trend" who, if warrants have been issued for them, will be arrested:
I've said in my briefing that the security forces in Basra cleared part of the areas in Basra and there are other parts [that] will be cleared. So, of course, we have the warrant for the arrests for all the wanted individuals and criminals so when the security forces find those people, they will be detained. But detaining members of the Sadr Trend, there are some criminals in all the parts like-parties like in the Sadr Trend and the Islamic Party. So the question is will there be any criminals in the Sadr Trend? There could be some criminals in the Sadr Trend. And there were some arrest warrants and if they are found, they will be arrested.
Certainly no backing down there and clearly that statement lends credence to the claim that the operation is aimed at "criminal elements".
Then there's this very revealing question and answer:
REP15: Sorry. We have heard you emphasize from the start, including today, that the operation in Basra doesn't target any specific group. And yet the reports that we get of the clashes all seem to be concentrated in areas that are controlled by Jaish al-Mahdi. Have the government forces gone into the port, for example, or other areas that are controlled by other groups? Or will you be pursuing individuals belonging to other groups, are they on your list as well?
DR ALI:[Speaks in Arabic.]
INT: We think that no group should control any place in Basra. And it's not-and no group has right to control any place. It's the government and the government constitutes-according to the constitution, no one should share the government in establishing the law. That's why the government, when it targets any group that tries to violate the law or breaks the law, they target them because they tried to break the law regardless of their political background. If people understood that we targeted a certain area or certain people because there were some wanted individuals in those areas and, of course, the operations extended to other places to include Basra. The operations will not be-will not [be] over unless Basra is stable so that the Iraqi citizen could live a normal life without any threats.
Note the bold line - per this reporter, the ISF and government of Iraq have "emphasized from the start" that this wasn't about any particular "trend" or militia. Anyone else remember that emphasis in reports coming out of there?
The answer too is both revealing and encouraging. Rule of law, security, etc.
The general reporting we've seen on this reminds me of much of the past reporting that has come out of Iraq - incomplete, uninformed and consequently painting the wrong picture. Reporting that seems aimed at describing a failed state, incompetent rulers, and a poorly trained and led military regardless of the actual situation. That's certainly not what I see being the case as I dig into this more and more. But I'm not at all surprised by what I've read previously and the doom and gloom it immediately spurred among the chattering classes, particularly on the left.
And, if you'll be mildly patient, you'll see it bloom, again, right here in our comment section. That said, once all of what I've outlined above is realized by the press, expect to see Iraq once again fade from the front pages of the newspapers.
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