Not sure where you are in your Hurst studies, but an FLD is 1/2 span of the cycle it's charting. For example, a 10 week fld would be 25 days - more or less - according to whether cycles shrinking or expanding during that cycle. So, the study marked 1/25 is the 10 week median cycle, the study market 1/13 is the 5 week cycle, etc.
You can see that between 2/22 and 2/26 the SPX crossed all three flds at approximately 1360 (warning: I am somewhat loose in my fld price interpretations and nowhere as precise as Airedale or Arjunah!) from the low of 1/23. Using the midpoints, this projected to a price to a price of about 1410-1420, as Airedale stated in on of his posts at that time.
This price projection was not fulfilled, which was bearish. The SPX went on to fulfill that bearish interpretation, penetrating back down through the flds again, and subsequently tagged 1260. It has then turned back up again to tag the underside of the 10 week fld. To penetrate through an fld to the downside, then turn up and tag the underside of same fld - in this case, the 10 week, and turn back down again is the action of prices responding to cycles other than the 10 week and if it follows through to the downside, this is typical of a bear market (and vice verse for a bull market.
It is crucial that it penetrate the blue line (10 week fld) again to the upside to maintain a bull perspective.
As you can see from the chart and per Arjunah's post, the share price is above the red line - the 5 week fld - and below the blue line - the 10 week fld. The prior meandering back and forth between the perspective flds is what is meant by a pause zone.
Early this morning the SPX went below the 2.5 week fld for a moment - probably on an intra-day chart equivalent to the daily counts - but then rocketed up to it's present high of 1350'ish.
'Bear' in mind that as Arjunah said the fld's will meet in a week. If the SPX either crosses through the 10 week fld now (this requires it to hit and maintaing 1370-1380) or next week as the 10 week fld turns down (remember the flds' are lagging 1/2 span behind the cycle it is tracking), this projects to a price of of 1460-1480!
The beauty of Hurst is that it is one of the few technical models that has a predictive value, also in it's system of checks and balances. It is also a perpetually self-correcting model in that how prices fulfill or not fulfill any one projection: i.e., the manner in which it interacts with a projection - how it reacts to the flds/moving averages - is in itself somewhat predictive.
As I don't know what Arjunah was using for his counts - if you remember, Airedale at one point was as low as 22 days for his 10 week fld count two years ago - I can't be sure if this is how he is interpreting the cycle counts.
Airedale, mon cherie, if you are watching, please don't be mad at my lowly best here. I know how you always used to yell at me about how sloppy I was!
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