Thank you sir and now for an encore 8^) I figure while we are reminissing that I would dig up some old Market Trend Update comments I made. You can find these reports on this board by searching or using the one I refer to below as I daisy chain all updates together, so just click reply and the next should come up (provided I did not break the chain. I found the post I wanted in the iHub archives under "Market Trend Update for the Week Ahead."
I noticed something intriguing about the RE situation and made note of it under the "Spin of the Day" segment. Funny thing is I thought I wrote this piece around Jun-Jul'06, but it turns out I wrote it on 06.26.2005
06.26.2005
Earnings season is upon us and of the handful of reports received, all is not well… That may change as we enter July, but for now we are seeing short falls and/or reduced forecasts from various companies of differing sectors and industries. It all started with INTC’s mid Qtr update, which did not impress Mr. Market. The guidance was not what had been hoped for and the potential of over supply issues remain. After the AAPL announcement most had expected a pop!, but the market slipped a bit. Since then (around June 10th) the market regained its footing and all was forgotten for the most part. Now that we have progressed deeper into the month we are starting to see more warnings or forecast reductions and few upside surprises. While some of these may fall into the “no big surprise” category such as MWD having been hit with a $1.5B settlement payout (although this should not be reflected in the books yet) and F with sagging SUV sales (although the new Mustang is said to be flying off showroom floors and should be picking up the slack) we also saw warnings and/or reduction in forecasts from the likes of DECK (retail – footwear & apparel), NUE (steel & iron - basic materials), ITW (industrial goods – tooling & machinery), COCO (education & training services), ELK (building materials), ATYT ( semiconductors), TWP (building materials), AOS (consumer goods – electronic equipment). None of these are slouches by any means, the diversification and breadth of industry with which warnings are coming from is noteworthy. The most noteworthy of these are ELK, ITW, TWP and AOS because these companies primarily serve the residential and commercial construction industries. Now do I have your attention? This could be the beginning of a new trend, which sheds a whole new light on the construction industry. Will this trend continue? The verdict is still out, but I would not bet against it and here’s why… ISM and Philly Fed have been slipping over the last 4-months while Durable Goods Orders have declined for the 3rd time in 4-months (excluding transportation). Then there is the issue of an inverting yield curve and LEI has declined for the 4th time in 5-months. Last but not least, the BDI or Baltic Dry Index has basically fallen off of a cliff. While PPI and CPI have supposedly remained tame, but excluding food and energy they have risen 3.5% and 3.7% respectively for the year. To date, that is more than GDP for the year. Just imagine if food and energy were included (and they are if you live in the real world). Couple all of this with rising energy demand, slowing consumer sales, the rising price of oil, poor job creation and falling wages and what we have is a recipe for the “R” word. While it may be early to say a “recession” is in the making, I am going to say it anyway. Chinks in the armor are evident and unless there is a flattening or change in trend, we are slowly but surely moving into a recession…
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For those of you new to the Your Economy board, I use to produce a weekly update report that contained a lot of what I usually post. Oddly enough I called it the "Market Trend Update for the Week Ahead" or as cyber buddy nlightn would say "the MtUftwa" }8^) Unfortunately a while back it got to be too much for me between work, homelife, keeping up with daily market events and so on and so forth ,, so I had to stop. I felt as if the work would suffer.
But times be changing rapidly .. from working too hard to having a bit too much time on my hands. I do like the current format where I put up weekly data on Fri or Sat and then follow up with some commentary and charts, etc. on Sun
Therefore I may start up the "Spin" portion again .. and I may just post past renderings like the one above, which believe it or not are very pertinent to todays market place
If anyone has an interest in reading some of my past work you may be surprised to see how the puzzle pieces fit together. Do a search for Market Trend Update, once you find one there will be a reply from myself. I like to daisy chain these for comparative notation.
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