Has Qualcomm's Time Come? Apparently so, from the growing list of long time skeptics (buy and sell side “analysts”, authors/ journalists and perennial message board QCOM antagonists ) who have just recently become converts and are now heaping praise on a company they formerly “loved to hate”.
The timing of this conversion by Dave Mock with the announcement of his new book "The Qualcomm Equation", (this labor of love) is also interesting. Yes, Mr. Mock has been dropping hints over several week of his new found love, but he gave a copy to George Gilder to read last November.
BTW, this was GG’s reply to a question I asked-
GG, Re: Dave Mock's book to be released on Qualcomm, did it mention why he did a complete about face and now believes in Qualcomm / CDMA?
“No, not an inkling that he ever questioned Qualcomm. Excellent book though.”
I personally emailed Dave asking the same question, with the reply that he wasn’t permitted to discuss the book at that time.
Some who aren’t familiar with Dave’s prior characterization of Qualcomm may want to read his Unstrung article of 11-09-02 “Qualcomm: In Need of a Revamp”, and my critique of such.
Despite Mock’s critical assessment of Qualcomm’s future and discouraging anyone from buying QCOM, a short time later he surprisingly revealed that he actually owned QCOM, thus defying his own investment advice (sorry, I can’t locate that post). It should also be noted that Mr. Mocks co-author (Mr. Taulli) wrote a book on short selling.
Quote from that article- “...We see no upside in this stock anywhere in the foreseeable future.”
Qualcomm stock price for reference-
• Oct 1, 2002......$29.55 • Oct 15................35.08 • Oct 31................34.26 • Nov 8............. ..34.48 Publication Date • April 6.2004.......68.45
Part 2 of Dave’s “Fool” article explains his reasons for now owing QCOM. I guess it’s better late than never, but most of the enlightened posters on the Qualcomm boards who kept us in QCOM over all the difficult times by their willing sharing of the facts and disputing all the FUD are my real heroes (Gregg Powers, Engineer, Ramsey, Clark Hare, Caxton Rhodes, Mighty Lakers, Chaz, Ton Brush, C2, John G,etc, etc). I believe most of these folks would concur that the foundation for Qualcomm’s future growth was well known back in Nov 2002, and there is not much “new” in Dave’s sudden revelations, except being on the verge of the robust WCDMA ramp which Dr. IMJ correctly appraised the world of several years ago (for which he was vigorously attacked by many, including poster(s) to these boards)
Trend #1: Qualcomm's income is largely driven from wireless handset sales, which are booming.
Trend #2: The majority of Qualcomm's business comes from Asia, an area of high replacement cycles.
Trend #3: Significant revenue from WCDMA is now showing.
Trend #4: New markets are developing slowly but surely.
So why now is Mr. Mock “outing” his new book, and not waiting till the Fall when it’s to be published?
So why now do we have former poster(s) who took delight at disparaging Qualcomm, and Qualcomm’s management, now gushing with unbridled enthusiasm for QCOM?
Could it be that “Qualcomm’s time has come”, and they don’t want to be left on the outside?
What happens on April 21 that could positively impact QCOM even more- the earnings CC and new guidance for Q3, possibly Q4 for significant MSM est increases, and updated FY04 EPS?
Yup, better jump on the bandwagon now, it hard enough explaining missing a 130% gain !!!!
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