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Santa Barbara Broker

03/10/08 10:36 AM

#19790 RE: dave5197 #19789

Expecting an MTNL launch sooner than 8-9 months following equipment arrival is probably wishful thinking. Expecting any significant One Voice revenue from India before the 2nd quarter 2009 is also likely to not happen. Expecting hard numbers from ONEV filings reliable enough to base projections from MTNL revenue on before August or September 2009 will likely lead to disapointment as well. I am certain there will be a flurry of outrage over my statements, but the projections are based on realistic time frames from the only experiences available for the company following rollouts of this size. Telmex (Telnor). So if you want to disagree, include your explanations of exactly why the same testing and corporate delays that occurred in Mexico will be absent in this situation. Quote a source or established model for your reasoning besides hearsay or supposition. Please do not use the lame excuse of "experience". ONEV has been rolling out MV applications for nearly a half decade. It has nothing to do with a learning curve at this point. It's the simple nature of the beast. I, as I suspect a few others here, do grow weary of the flaming that comes from the same sources that then 12 months down the road, rush in to make equally unsubstantiated or irrational excuses as to why the delays have occurred. This after said delays materialize much as their imagined "ONEV bashers" had projected in the first place.

That's also why seeing meaningful revenue from IRIS is so incredibly critical for the fourth quarter of 2007. IMHO, no other revenue of significance will be coming in before the middle of 2009 with the exception of the rural carrier revenue. I believe the first of the one year renewals for one or two of those are upcoming and there is no indication as of yet if the carriers will be renewing. Hopefully last year was not a template for the probabilities going forward. As far as these unsecured cash loans? How long can you borrow money against unearned revenue? Borrowed money that is being used to pay past or current debt and operating costs while you are depositing current and future revenue into a secure account to pay those lenders? Established revenue streams, no matter how small, simply cannot be overestimated in their importance to holding off another potential round of massive dilution over the next 18 months.