Farooq, I'm not a big fan of the school that says a triangle must resolve either up or down.
I've seen too many of them that just morph into a trading range. I've got a lot of them on my TeleChart set-up that have done just that. I'd rather rely on the near term indicators, hourly and daily to give me clues.
One thing that tears up any formation that one finds in books and on-line tutorials is unexpected news, especially major news. The basic notion of technical analysis in my mind is to try to quantify the ebb and flow of the psychology of traders and investors. A big news event can, and does, affect that psychological situation beyond what it had been previously.
Therefore, I'm pretty covinced that short term TA is more reliable than longer. For example, I can understand why a gap has psychological reason to be closed within a few days, but I really fail to grasp the need for a gap to be closed that happened 6 months ago.
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