In order for gold to drop $200/oz the fundamentals would have to support such a move. Otherwise it is just manipulation by hedge funds to cover shorts or something like that.
I don't see the fundamentals changing anytime soon. The dollar isn't going back above 83 (composite) for at least a year, probably longer.
Oil is ridiculously expensive, but will probably stay that way. Not just Iran and the Middle East, but also Russia, Hugo Chavez. All of our oil sources except ourselves and Canada are hostile towards us.
China trading gold and their CB adding it as a larger part of their reserves. Growing middle class in India and China.
Gold has just made huge runs in other currencies as well, while the dollar held its ground (for a time).
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