Regarding NSMG, I was a little worried it would suffer badly from the lack of hurricanes the past couple seasons and wouldn't have its typical pre-season run. Well, I was wrong, we saw a nice jump from the .02-.03 range at the beginning of the year. With NSMG, you get a sideways chart during the first few months of the season until a major hits U.S. Soil. Each year, that base has dropped to a lower level. 2006 it was .40, 2007 it was .20, this year I believe it will be .10.
Therefore, a buy today gets you a double by the beginning of the season in my estimation. From there, it all depends on the weather.
Of the "pure-plays", it appeared last season that WEGI gained popularity over NSMG, so I would watch for WEGI to reach for .20 by the beginning of the season.
As I have mentioned recently, I really like DPDW this year. The stock is beat down pretty badly and a great buy at this level. The 10-K to be released by April 15th should be exceptional, which will only add to any pre-season runup. The MMs recognize a gem in this market and will try to keep the price down as long as they can, but they won't be able to hold it down much longer. I expect we'll be in the $1.00-$1.50 range by the beginning of the season.
Cargo has been mentioning IPII and PDGE, and I am in agreement that both look pretty good for this season.
Don't even get me started with BUGS and SSWM. The so-called Mexico Plays didn't pan out last year, but they always seem to have a nice bounce every so often. You gotta time your trades strategically on these ones.
You also can't discuss the hurricane plays without mentioning ECCI - probably another double from now until the beginning of the season.
Then there is EEGI. Who knows? Gotta at least throw a few hundred bucks in it.
What have I missed. There are definitely some other good ones mentioned in the ibox. There is also likely a hidden gem out there that no one is talking about yet. If you have any new picks this season, I would love to hear about it.
Rhino
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