Replies to post #6869 on AMD strictly moderated (AMD)

[chipguy]

This company will have another winning run and large amounts of money will be made on the long side again!

I once thought the same way about a company called 3dfx
and lost a bunch of money. Ever heard of them?

Stick your hand in a pail of water. Now pull it out. See the
hole left in the water where your hand was?

That is how irreplaceable and important AMD is to the tech
industry. It will simply be yet another name of a has been
semi company to add to the hundreds that have come and
gone over the past forty years.

[alan81]

The question is, with which product, manufactured on which process. It takes three things to align for AMD to make money; solid manufacturing process, capacity, and a good CPU design. If we take these one at a time:
Manufacturing capacity: I think AMD is OK here with the 300mm fab 36, and the old fab 30 being converted into a new fab 38... they have plenty of capacity.
Manufacturing process: Intel is currently shipping 45nm with an advanced gate dielectric that appears to be both improving performance and reducing power compared to conventional methods. OTOH, AMD's highest performing product is still on 90nm, while 65nm is lower cost, lower power, and lower performing. The current schedule has AMD releasing their 45nm process in Q4 2008, and by all appearances it will be lower performing than the process Intel released in Q4 2007. AMD is behind, and by all appearances falling further behind.
CPU Design: The new 65nm AMD Barcelona design is not competitive with the old Intel 65nm clovertown design. Intel has updated this to the new yorkfield, which improves performance by perhaps another few percent over clovertown. Intel then releases Nehalem in Q4 which is rumored to have significant upside to the current product line. In Q4, AMD releases the 45nm shrink of the Barcelona. From all appearances, AMD is behind, and getting further behind here as well.
Unless there is a rabbit in a hat somewhere, I don't see it.
Note that potential rabbits include a large lawsuit settlement with Intel, or a buyout of AMD by IBM/Samsung/etc...
--Alan