Businessweek: I read the hard copy of that article, but loved the slide show and how it showed what % decline brings us to a certain years valuation level. Shows that there is still some exuberance baked into certain areas prices. Looking at Miami & Phoenix, it seems like a world of pain is still waiting for house hunters there.
My own personal situation, I've been renting since I got married 5 years ago, because I thought housing prices had gone insane. I've convinced my wife of the fact and was nagged ruthlessly during the up years, but some form of vindication has settled in. I want to live in Northern NJ and I'm planning on renting for at least another year, maybe two. Good thing rental costs are still low, until they are near even w/ buying it still makes no sense. During all this time waiting, I've had a kid that's 2 yrs old and just had another newborn last month. I think this year and next year's decline will be the most substantial. The dam has broken...
From a stock point of view, I tried shorting homebuilders but had to sell out of my position about 6 months too early. Tried shorting BZH missed it. Than tried shorting FED, but again a little too early. Both times probably bet a little too large, so couldn't withstand too much upside. Next time I short, I'll take a position I can handle and not be so greedy with putting on the largest position possible. That's the problem with shorting is staying liquid before the timing becomes right.
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