Replies to post #17898 on Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL)

[cbs13]

Not impressed with the mkt/individual stock rally

Seeing chart after chart, all looking the same down on above avg volume and rebound at present is on low volume. Also this rally has not met any significant resistance. The mkt and many individual stocks are approaching their 50 day ma avg's it will be interesting to see what happens as these levels are approached. MRVL chart included.

The volatility has been great. Even though the mkt put in a good week, many intra-day swings of down 100+, up 100+ has allowed me to continue to make money on the short side.

I continue to short stocks into earnings and cover after CC.
Most have been small to mid-cap bank stocks.

As to strategy, here is what I ave been doing lately:

1) Look at the earnings calendar
2) Find stocks the have run up 10-15%, sometimes more into earnings.
3) Check if stock is outside the BB
4) Check if stock is overbought on S/T Stoch's
5) Check the short interest - look to see if it has been rising.

All and all a good week.

BTW - Short Interest in MRVL INCREASED again through mid-Jan.
Can you believe that. The stock trades down from 14 at yr end to 10 and the short interest increases.

The stock will see single digits at some point after earnings.

BTW 2 - The 4 horsemen of the Naz - GOOG, AMZN, AAPL have all seen their runs come to an end, as each have not met earnings/revenue guidance.
That leaves RIMM, and the stock has come down but they don't report until March as their qtr end in Feb. That will be very interesting to listen too.

[sungolfer]

Maybe you didn't read thisPosted by: sungolfer
In reply to: None Date:1/24/2008 6:35:26 PM
Post #of 17904

UP 12000 on mrvl today,If you people follow briefing.com news you would have noticed the last two weeks the effort by mrvl and support by others for the stock.The bottom was coming ,thats when i bought at more shares on friday at 10.54. What next tuesday new COF,today upgrade.This all tells me the company is working with the street now and the street is working with mrvl.As far as brcm not going down as expected guess what briefing sends out everything prior to the close.It's proactive as can be. 24-Jan-08 15:40 ET In Play Broadcom Earnings Preview (22.40 +1.22) -Update : Broadcom is set to report Q4 earnings after the close tonight with a conference call following at 4:45 ET. Current consensus is for EPS of $0.32 on revs of $1.02 bln... Analyst Expectations: Expectations appear to be mixed and cautious for Q4, with concern over slowing consumer demand exiting 2007 in US and Europe. Additionally, analysts comment that expenses for handsets could continue to weigh on profitability. In terms of guidance, analysts seem to agree that the company will issue a conservative, seasonally weak 1Q08 outlook... Recent Earnings History: Q3 (10/23): BRCM missed by $0.02, but beat on revs. On the call, the company guided product revenues to $960-$990 mln. The stock fell sharply the following day, gapping down at the open, and closer lower by nearly 17%; Q2 (7/19): BRCM missed by $0.02 and missed on revenues. The stock traded up marginally the next day; Q1 (4/16): BRCM beat by $0.02 and beat on revenues. The company issued downside revenue guidance for Q2. The stock traded down by more than 4% the next day... Key Metric for Q4: Gross Margin street expectation is 52.4%... Areas of Focus on the Call: 1) Revenue and Margin Guidance: Historically, the company issues revenue guidance for the upcoming qtr. Additionally, the company should provide sequential gross margin guidance in general terms, i.e., up or down. On BRCM's Q3 call, the company said they expect Y08 gross margins in the "middle band of 50 to 52"; 2) Nokia EDGE Wins: UBS noted that EDGE wins may be ramping slower than they had anticipated, which would be a negative for 2H08 growth rates; 3) Consumer Demand/Macro: 1H08 is the seasonally slower period, but due to weakness in US consumer spending, guidance should be muted; 4) Litigation: The ongoing lawsuits with Qualcomm (QCOM) will likely be a topic on the call. Recently, BRCM scored a win against QCOM when a judge issued an injunction against QCOM's infringement on 3 BRCM patents related to its cell phone IC business... Consensus: Q4 EPS $0.32, revs $1.02 bln; 1Q08 EPS $0.29, revs $998.17 mln, 2Q08 EPS $0.31, revs $1.05 bln, FY08 EPS $1.15, revs $3.77 bln; FY08 EPS $1.35, revs $4.38 bln... Secondary Plays: QCOM, TXN, IFX, NOK, MOT... Technical Levels of Interest: Click here for BRCM chart. (Length of the horizontal lines corresponds with the strength of the level.) (PVIEW)

post back on january/24

[sungolfer]

These are a couple of posts i sent out on how i trade in the past.Seems to me my system works.But we all know noting is 100% Posted by: sungolfer
In reply to: SyndicateTwo who wrote msg# 5288 Date:6/2/2007 4:24:40 PM
Post #of 17905

S2 i think we will see MRVL 20+ by end of month.Why bounce off positive doji, remember i said to buy THURSDAY.Next stock above 5ema always moves north.Possible "three white solider" as no one wants to be left behind.Once the MACD goes positive which it is very close to again pushes stock north.Next once 5ema moves up through 20 sma and they move through 50 sma all result in stock going north.I have found in a lot of stocks most times poitive news comes out once a stock is aligned in order of 5EMA ,20SMA ,50SMA 200SMA.If MRVL comes out with statement after this has happened we will see a additional 3 to 4 dollar gap up.Why this year the gaps have been very strong.So we may see that 24 to 25 sooner than people think.IF WE ARE GOING TO 30 TO 35 BY YEARS END IT NEEDS TO MOVE NOW.
Posted by: sungolfer
In reply to: cbs13 who wrote msg# 6069 Date:6/21/2007 5:23:54 PM
Post #of 17905

What I see is a positive MACD.With the for indicators i use 5 EMA,20 SMA 50 SMA AND 200 SMA.Whenever they cross each other,interest builds,which relates to increased buying,or selling.I use the 5ema as support and resistance.Thats it.I use the same indicators for swing trades or daytrades.I will tell you my success rate runs at 92%.I have used around 20 different sites on over the years and with all there methods,they haven't come close.They all have there systems,problem is,like I said in the past this is a game,KISS.
IF YOU USE THESE INDICATORS ON ANY STOCK YOU'LL LEARN HOW TO READ THEM.YOU WILL SEE THAT IT IS VERY EFFECTIVE.