<<what kind of deal do you think would be possible in the "RD failure" scenario you mentioned?>>
They wouldn't have leverage on keeping earlier compounds, and they would only be able to carve out whatever orphans the BP deemed suitable. There would be a couple of avenues to explore:
Would Schering Plough be inclined to partner the low impacts, or if not, could there be a three way trade where a BP could obtain SP's rights and Cortex's low impacts? If so, Cortex might still be able to finish the preclinical work on high impacts, sell them and the rights for neurodegeneration: the terms for preclinical platforms are better than they used to be. Either they would keep something to develop for an orphan, or do an inlicensing.
Or--find somebody to buy the rights and compounds, and go out of business.
There could be a viable plan in there, but with dwindling funds, the clock would be working against them. I'd have to look at some recent deals to estimate a sales price, but it'd probably be in the 1.00-1.50 range, just to guesstimate.
I think the likelihood of RD Phase IIa positive signs is high enough that I'm not going to spend any more time on this.
NeuroInvestment