Replies to post #114043 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[positiontrader]

Perhaps AJ,

But recently the equity p/c hit >1.0 and the 10 day trin was >1.7 twice this month(including a recent 1.99 level).Both normally turning points.

Regards

Marc

[opnion]

Maybe you look at the monthly $vix to garner even more respect for a higher $vix number. Could make me a scardy cat down the line a bit. g

[jdaasoc]

Consumer confidence, inflation, dollar index, unemployment rate an wage data are pretty predictive of stock market behavior.

VIX is just a "financial derivative". CDO's, AAA rated tranches of sub prime loans and other financial derivatives got under into this trouble and if people give VIX enough credence to "bet" on the market them we are truly hapless and hopeless.



VIX - CBOE Volatility Index
The ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk.

Notes:
The first VIX, introduced by the CBOE in 1993, was a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options. Ten years later, it expanded to use options based on a broader index, the S&P 500, which allows for a more accurate view of investors' expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets. The index is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge".


derivative
Definition

A financial instrument whose characteristics and value depend upon the characteristics and value of an underlier, typically a commodity, bond, equity or currency. Examples of derivatives include futures and options. Advanced investors sometimes purchase or sell derivatives to manage the risk associated with the underlying security, to protect against fluctuations in value, or to profit from periods of inactivity or decline. These techniques can be quite complicated and quite risky.