yayaa, $VIX seem reaching local max here, nice analysis for $VIX intraday chart see #msg-21598334 insider trading will be prosecuted like these #msg-19595110
Posted by: yayaa In reply to: wonderbuy who wrote msg# 13164 Date:1/11/2008 12:10:18 AM Post #of 13179
The VIX continues to follow the path annotated earlier this week, finishing a nasty multi-month Symmetrical Triangle pattern, with horrid prospects for the stock market over the next 4 to 6 months. The direction that an index traveled prior to this particular triangle pattern occurring is almost always the direction that the index will travel leaving the pattern. Because the pattern is large, we believe the VIX is headed much higher, perhaps into the 40's. It currently sits around 23.00. The VIX moves inversely to stocks. A sharply rising VIX means sharply diving stocks.
Short-term, the VIX pattern needs to drop to about the 19.00 to 20.00 area, which should represent the end of the current rally. This could likely occur late next week, around our coming phi mate turn date. Two enjoyable rally days are over, and every second of the next week's move must be appreciated.
It would appear we are in the midst of a stock market crash that started at 14,200 in the Dow Industrials in October 2007, and is likely to continue to at least 11,500 during the first half of 2008. It could go lower. That target comes from a confirmed Bearish Head & Shoulders Top pattern. No guarantees, but risk is higher than normal over the next several months.
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