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the big guy

01/06/08 9:51 PM

#15870 RE: Netman #15869

Yes, and what is true as well is that you cannot kick yourself for what you did/did not do based on the chart, because these charts are naturally self-smoothing. When a stock spikes up, it is difficult to know what to do. Will it continue to go up? Who the hell knows. When you look at it later, it will look like a nice smooth curve, which will tend to make you say to yourself, "why didn't I sell right ... there" at the precise point that it rounded the top of the chart. Fact is, when all of the data is smoothed out and averaged over time, those spikes become nice rounded curves, which entice all to give ourselves a nice painful kick. Likewise with bottoms...

Like I said, I only use them to confirm decisions already made, or to influence timing of trades... by the time you get the signal, the price movement has usually happened. I find it odd that every book I buy out there on the subject of stock trading states that you can make a fortune by using these indicators.

I do use a couple (RSI, MACD, ...) to influence my timing, but as I understand them better, I realize that that kind of investing is flawed. Right now the market is down, and it will stay that way for awhile, regardless of the indicators.