Shmolt: WC's:
"Do these numbers include wildcards that are traded into?"
No. They are based on original picks only. There really is no other (non massive work) way to do it. By utilizing original picks, ALL stocks begin and end at the same point making comparisons fairly easy.
I suppose it is possible that a person could argue that a WC could theoretically have more volatility and thus could be more likely traded for a gain - implying that using beginning WCs and non WCs unfairly affect the results. But, I would counter that the whole point of WCs is that you are waiting for some FUTURE payoff - meaning, if anything, they would take even longer to payoff than non WC's (beyond the time frame of a PSL contest).
In fact, I think that underscores the issue. I'm not positive that WC's (picked by VMC'ers) are less likely to pay off over time than non WC's. Frankly, given the probability that any of our stocks going up a mile will also come down a mile, it could well be that WC's EVENTUALLY pay off better (on average) than non WC's for the simple reason that you might have a better chance at 20-100 bagger - more than compensating for the higher number of failures. But, PSL contests are only 3.5 months long (on average) and that isn't enough time (clearly based on stats) to benefit (on average).
Len
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