AAPL closed with a falling hammer at "A" targeted price 196-200 +/-. I'd like to see a correction and at this point it is better to lock in profit if entered at the bottom near 160 +/-.
Posted by: __1Best__ In reply to: __1Best__ who wrote msg# 4764 Date:12/7/2007 8:03:48 PM Post #of 4803
AAPL closed at 194.30 above the 192, 11/06/07 high.
After examining the AAPL LT price actions, I made a mistake on 25yr LT TL breakout, it is the " 20yr LT TL" breakout; however, as shown on the LT chart, we have 15yr TL resistance near at 200.
After having parabolic moves since Aug 2004 LT breakout, I think that it needs to show a significant correction.
Right after we had Katrina, markets are showing huge bubbles, such as we can see on AAPL, Aug 2005 breakout which is the 2nd LT breakout. The same parabolic moves can be seen in metals such as Gold.
During Oct 2007, I have stated that I am not bullish in 2008. Since then, we are seeing more evidences of bearish news that we are in a mountain of debts with credit problems. I think that we need to deal with the problems now and avoiding the issues or pretending that we are still all right in bull market is self-deceiving.
AAPL is a main driver of major markets. Breaking out AAPL at this point to show major markets in bullish appearance is hypocritical as many stocks are continuing to bleed in downtrend.
It is about time for us to sober up. Bubbling up AAPL is not a way to deal with the real issues.
AAPL closed at 166.39 above 50dma after trading to 192.68 on 11/7/07, and found a support at 153.76 on 11/12/07. It has retraced 20 which is 20% RT during the recent correction.
The 153.76 support on 11/12/07 is 50% retracement of 8/16/07 rally.
The May 2007 breakout near 118 is a significant 25 year long term trend resistance and it retested in Aug 2007. After the significant VLT breakout, it is also showing 2 year trendline breakout as shown on the weekly chart. It has broken out in w/e 10/7/07 at the same time, it also has broken out of Jul 2007 top. Then, it traded to 192.68 near to the targeted price 200.
It has FPE of 33.80 even after the parabolic price movement. I think that it still has significant growth potential as LT technical price action suggests 300 with the best case scenario as more China consumers are purchasing iPhone and other AAPL products as an example.
On AAPL weekly, it has closed with doji formation at the strong support as noted above and daily price action is oversold. Hence, it will likely support the major markets.
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