niles, AYSI earnings: I figure them for 2.5-3 cents for Q4 07. That for one Q may not convince people to give it a fwd PE of whatever #. But the Qs coming after it should be able to meet and beat the Q4 07 #s going forward.
I originally put a little bit of revs into Q1 08 from a 2nd mill but it is my feeling it is still under construction. So I may wait for Q2 08 to put the 2nd mill figs in (unless the mill gets finished very soon). But even with just the one mill, it will be going with 2 full 12 hour shifts for all of Q1 08 (minus holiday time) so could see revs of $3.5-$4 mill in Q1 08 w/o a 2nd mill.
And Q2 08 will have a little down time at beginning of Q for plant maintenance (might be they are pushing out the completion of mill 2 to that date because plant would be open and unoccupied by workers so easier to construct but not at all sure, I'll try and pin down mill #2 a bit better after Q4 08 #s come out and talk directly with Gene, as I think mill #2 will seriously improve performance going forward so timing of when it comes online will be a big indicator of when to see some big top and bottom line growth IMO).
It may take about one Q or 2 Qs for AYSI to convince potential customers that they can get the product to them in a timely manner. But if they can, then I expect orders to pick up nicely for AYSI's Arcoplate for some time (I think AYSI is highly constrained right now just tyring to fill existing customer orders in a timely manner and so is unfortunately not taking in new customers of any size just yet lest they not be able to deliver the product when the customer needs it, all IMO).
For now, I am figuring conservatively they do 21 cents in 2008 if they don't get the 2nd mill commissioned until late into the 2nd Q and have Gross Margins of 45%.
However, I think they will complete mill #2 before then and also think gross margins will beat 45% for 2008.
A rough way of avging revs that I did was to put $3 mill revs for Q1, $4 mill for Q2, $5 mill for Q3 and $6 mill for Q4 08.
Those revs with 45% GMs would yield about 20 cents EPS for year. But if the 2nd mill comes online in Q2 08, then I think we could see a quick pop over $4 mill revs in the Q2 08 report even with the down time (plant maintenance). And Q3 08 would likely approach (or top) $6 mill revs so the 20 cents EPS would be surpassed easily IMO.
One question mark I have is gross margins. Unfortunately, I think Gene is pricing his product too cheaply right now. So we'll see where GMs come in at. If they're around 45-50%, then I think just by increasing prices Gene could vastly improve my guesses at EPS for year 2008.
Conservatively doing the $3 mill, $4, $5, and $6 mill for the 4 Qs in 2008 would yield EPS of about 20 cents at 45% GMs, 24 cents at 50%, 27+ cents at 55%, and 31 cents at 60% GMs.
If we bump it up to $4 mill Q1, $5 mill Q2, $6 mill Q3, and $7 mill Q4 then EPS goes to approx 27 cents EPS at 45% GMs, 32 cents at 50%, 36 cents at 55% GMs, and 40+ cents at 60% GMs.
And 2009 IMO company should have an easy time beating revs figs for 2008. Mainly because I feel Arcoplate is a both better AND cheaper product than much (if not all) of the competition (competition being chromium alloy overlay plate w/o thermoclad process). Plus 2009 would have 2 mills running, and possibly 3 or 4 at some point. That's why I'm hoping Gene raises prices, so customers at least think a little bit before deciding on a product to use. He can lower the prices once they get capacity ramped up. It pains me to think customers are settling for less quality and sometimes at higher prices just because they need the product now (or soon) and can't get the product they want (Arcoplate) form AYSI.
Right now, if I had to guess, I'd say the biggest thing limiting customers from ordering Arcoplate is because of the time to wait for the plate to get to them. I've talked to some independent sources that say they love the plate but can't get it when they need it. Hopefully a 2nd (and maybe 3rd and 4th) mill will change that but keep that info here please, and we'll see going forward whether that is actually the case or not:)
Maybe Gene will give in a and go for a licensing deal with all the demand, but I have a feeling he's holding out to do this on his own. He's sacrificed a lot to get the comapny on the verge of big success IMO. Hopefully he can convert going forward.
Good luck! Hope you have some shares to enjoy the ride.
I think many on VMC look at the balance sheet, cash position, etc. and shy away from thsi company right now.
Maybe Q4 07 will start to convince some of them. And then it is onward and upward from there IMO.
But as SSK says, all is just my opinion and I could be completely wrong.
The thing I feel most confident about with AYSI is the demand/need from customers for the Arcoplate product right now. If only they can build it efficiently and get it to customers in a timely fashion. Perth is a medium-sized port. And shipping something to a customer a long ways away when few ships sail to ports far away (say Canada for instance) means customers get stuck waiting a long time for product IMO.
IMO htis should be a growth company for several years with revs so I do not see the argument in pricing them as a cyclical at this stage. Maybe if their market cap was $100 mill and they were selling lots of Arcoplate, that would show they'vematured and settled in. But with a market cap of under $15 mill, I think there's a long ways to go for this.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
AI
