NFL Week 13 opening line report
11/26/2007 - By: Stephen Nover
All season long bookmakers were looking to get a break from Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots and their adoring betting public.
Did they finally get one this past Sunday night when the Pats didn’t come close to covering a 24-point spread in a 31-28 win over Philadelphia?
Not really.
“When the Patriots play a disappointing game like that, you have to be concerned that Belichick is going to really run it up so you have to make the next game’s spread higher,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The linesmakers at LVSC sent out an opener of New England -21 at the Baltimore Ravens. The betting line on Monday was Patriots -20. Since this is the Monday night matchup, the guess is the line is going to close higher.
The Ravens are 1-10 against the spread this season. Their quarterback is Kyle Boller – and he’s an upgrade on a gallant but washed-up Steve McNair.
The once-formidable Baltimore defense has allowed 124 points in its last four games, an average of 31 a game. The Patriots are on a record scoring pace averaging 40.2 points per contest. New England's defense ranks No. 3. They lead the NFL in turnover ratio at plus-13, while the Ravens are tied for last in takeaways/giveaways at minus-nine.
“The Ravens can’t compete anymore,” Seba said. “You have to figure New England can come in and name its score.”
Seba said he could see the number rising to 21 or even 22.
“I don’t think it would get past 21 ½ or 22,” he said. “That would be the highest.”
The LVSC oddsmakers recommended an opening line of Minnesota Vikings -4 ½ at home to the Detroit Lions. Most bookmakers chose to open the Vikings a field goal favorite. On Monday the line was nearing 3 ½ with many places listing Minnesota -3 with -$1.25 juice instead of the normal -$1.10 vigorish.
“It’s a case of two teams going in different directions,” Seba said about why LVSC believed the Vikings should have opened higher. “Detroit is reeling. The Lions aren’t a bad team, but psychologically they can’t be too confident.”
The Lions have dropped three in a row after a 6-2 start. The Green Bay Packers exposed Detroit’s weak secondary and lack of pass protection. The Lions have given up a league-high 47 sacks.
Star rookie Adrian Peterson is expected to play after missing the past two games because of a knee injury. Even if Peterson can’t go, Seba said he only would make a 1-point line adjustment because the Vikings have another quality runner, Chester Taylor.
The San Diego-Kansas City line has Seba perplexed. The Chargers are 4 ½-point road favorites. Seba’s line was San Diego -7.
“I don’t get it,” he said. “Kansas City can’t do anything. I don’t know how the Chargers can’t be at least 6-point favorites. They have revenge and an urgency to step it up.”
Bettors, though, may justifiably be leery of the Chargers on the road. The Chargers are 1-4 straight-up and against the spread this season away from home. They also have a sad history at Arrowhead Stadium, losing nine of their past 10 there.
LaDainian Tomlinson has achieved many milestones, but he has failed to rush for 100 yards in his past four games.
Oddsmakers are closely monitoring the Tampa Bay-New Orleans matchup because of the physical condition of Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia. He missed most of Tampa Bay’s victory against Washington last Sunday because of a back injury.
The Saints opened -3 with extra juice, but the line would jump up if Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden is forced to start Bruce Gradkowski instead of Garcia.
“The line climbs to 5 or 5 ½ if Garcia is out,” Seba said. “Tampa wins with defense and a ball control offense. Garcia is a master of that. Gradkowski can’t make a third-and-seven. Garcia can.”
Linemakers also are keeping an eye on the Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback situation. Some believe there is no difference anymore between Donovan McNabb and backup A.J. Feeley following Feeley’s fine performance versus New England.
“I think he (McNabb) is still a point or 1 ½ points better,” Seba said, “at least perception-wise if not performance-wise.”
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