chipguy, I´m sure all your points are valid to some degree, I´m also sure I would have heard the same thing 6 months ago, and probably will again six months in the future.
I think the real revolution is starting to happen in the x86 workstation space. There´s a reason for IBM, SUN, Fujitsu-Siemens and others to come out with Opteron workstations, despite having been INTEL-only before. AMD64 in that space makes a LOT of sense. In terms of unit sales, I doubt IPF workstation sales this year will be impressive, or even relevant, compared to x86. I bookmarked this post and will revisit this prediction at the end of the year.