Replies to post #110792 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[mr_cassandra]

just my 2 cents but I don't think you can put much stock in what the media and/or the govt predicts on a lot of things.

A little over a year ago, 'experts' were confidently telling us on tv that the subprime problem would be contained and small, and not spillover to banks and/or the general economy. (and that 'folks were exxagerting this')

Prio to Katrina in N.O. we were told that Fema had been all overhauled and was totally ready for the storm.

The dikework they had needed years before would have cost 1/10 what we have now ended up paying for.

E-Trade wrote a letter to their customers over 2months ago saying that what happended this week, would not happen.

And last but not least, during and after the usa banking/real estate crisis in 1990, we were told
1. everything will be thoroughly investigated
2. new laws have been enacted
3. this will not happen again.

Citibank announced last week that they have appointed an 'expert' to oversee their subprime loan mess.

Are we supposed to infer they <<<didn't>>> have experts when they made all the subprime related transactions?

Sory for the extaensive ramble but my point is anyone with a long term memory going back years should not be fooled by the 'conventional' wisdom, instead endeavor to 'read between the lines' based on how many times you've seen all this cycle thru.

[rich ruscio]

(OT) Mish blog

I believe Mish has developed an audience who prefer to read the perspective he offers. I'm not claiming that his view of the future will come true or not. But Mish plays to a certain view of that future, and the audience.

How things will actually work out ... if we ever find someone who can actually predict correctly, I suspect we'll tell about it.

Good trading.

rr

[ajtj99]

Joseph, I believe part of standing out in the world of the internet involves having strong convictions. While Mish may seem a little too assured of what he believes will transpire, it would be difficult for him to get visibility if he had a more balanced viewpoint.

I am actually in agreement with him on several issues, but for different reasons. However, there are big chasms on some things. He thinks it's 1929 right now, where I believe it's more like 1936 as far as stock market patterns go.

I also disagree with the IMF regarding global recession. I believe the US is going to be officially in one in early 2008 and the rest of the globe will follow. I also believe housing will not bottom until 2012, and those are two things Mish and I agree on.

I also have chart patterns suggesting we will see unemployment from 6.75% to 7% nationally as well as the worst recession since 1980-1982.

Back when the SSEC Shanghai index was at about 2800, Mish thought it was in a bubble. I thought it could go to 5200 (later modified to as high as 6500 to 7100). I also think it will correct to 3000, and later possibly as low as 2400.