I don't know if you would necessarily call it logical, but I believe the market's behavior is a composite of statistical behavior that is reasonably predictable (and why TA works part of the time), and a random component that is driven by fear and emotion that almost defies any attempt at pronostication. In periods of low volatility, the statistical behavior seems to prevail, where the market moves methodically between mild OB and OS extremes, but in periods of high volatility, everyone is second guessing themselves and everyone else, and trading on raw fear and emotion based on the apparent spin of the latest tidbit of information that they believe might give them the edge. Following a major market disruption (or in the case of an event that unbalances the normal market forces, e.g. the Sep Fed announcement that cut the legs from under the bears), it can be a period of weeks until the reverberations settle out, very much like the response of an underdamped control system. I don't think it is ever all one way or the other, but the ratio definitely changes, from say ~ 70/30 rationale to 30/70 irrational. I just counted the number of reversals the last two trading days -- 7 on Fri and 5 today (counting that little pullback into the close). So I leave it to you to venture a guess as to which period we are in.
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