Replies to post #4948 on Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[walldiver]

I'd have to take issue with your point #3. I don't see the stock hitting sub 2 bucks if the trial is continued after the interim look. I just don't believe that the majority of long shares invested in DNDN are expecting the interim results to trigger a renewed filing for approval. Sure, there will be a lot of retail and mo-mo shares sold on this type of news, but not IMO enough to drop it that low. I can see it hitting the low side of the pre-advisory panel meeting trading range.

Because there will be so many censored patients (and so many more total patients in the trial), I don't see the Cox exercise improving the p value as much as it did in 9901. In fact, I've heard that many IMPACT patients were also stratified at randomization for # of bone mets, and that's probably half of the Cox improvement right there. Of course, that should make the log rank better than it otherwise would be.